Kuyambira Januware mpaka Novembala 2021, mphamvu ya photovoltaic yomwe idakhazikitsidwa kumene ku China inali 34.8GW, kuwonjezeka kwachaka ndi 34.5%.Poganizira kuti pafupifupi theka la mphamvu zomwe zakhazikitsidwa mu 2020 zidzachitika mu Disembala, kukula kwa chaka chonse cha 2021 kudzakhala kotsika kwambiri kuposa zomwe msika ukuyembekezeka.China Photovoltaic Industry Association idatsitsa zomwe zidakhazikitsidwa pachaka ndi 10GW mpaka 45-55GW.
Pambuyo pa chiwopsezo cha kaboni mu 2030 komanso cholinga chofuna kusalowerera ndale mu 2060, anthu osiyanasiyana amakhulupirira kuti makampani opanga ma photovoltaic abweretsa mbiri yakale yachitukuko cha golide, koma kukwera kwamitengo mu 2021 kwadzetsa malo azachuma kwambiri.
Kuchokera pamwamba mpaka pansi, unyolo wamakampani a photovoltaic wagawika pafupifupi magawo anayi opanga: zida za silicon, zowotcha za silicon, ma cell ndi ma module, kuphatikiza kukula kwa siteshoni yamagetsi, maulalo asanu.
Pambuyo pa chiyambi cha 2021, mtengo wa silicon wafers, cell conduction, superimposed glass, EVA film, backplane, frame ndi zina zothandizira zidzakwera.Mtengo wa module udabwezeredwa ku 2 yuan/W zaka zitatu zapitazo mchakachi, ndipo udzakhala 1.57 mu 2020. Yuan/W.M'zaka khumi zapitazi, mitengo yamagawo idatsata malingaliro otsikira pansi, ndipo kusinthika kwamitengo mu 2021 kwaletsa kufunitsitsa kukhazikitsa malo opangira magetsi otsika.
M'tsogolomu, chitukuko chosagwirizana cha maulalo osiyanasiyana mu unyolo wamakampani a photovoltaic chidzapitirira.Kuwonetsetsa kuti chitetezo chamakampani ogulitsa ndi chinthu chofunikira kwambiri kwamakampani onse.Kusinthasintha kwamitengo kudzachepetsa kwambiri kutsata ndikuwononga mbiri yamakampani.
Kutengera zomwe zikuyembekezeka kutsika kwa mtengo wamakampaniwo komanso nkhokwe zazikulu zapakhomo, Photovoltaic Industry Association imalosera kuti mphamvu ya photovoltaic yomwe yangoyikidwa kumene mu 2022 ikuyenera kupitilira 75GW.Pakati pawo, nyengo ya photovoltaic yogawidwa pang'onopang'ono ikuyamba, ndipo msika ukuyamba kupanga.
Kulimbikitsidwa ndi zolinga zapawiri-carbon, likulu likuthamangira kuonjezera photovoltaics, kuzungulira kwatsopano kwa mphamvu zowonjezera kwayamba, kuwonjezereka kwapangidwe ndi kusalinganika kudakalipo, ndipo mwina kukulirakulira.Pansi pa kulimbana pakati pa osewera atsopano ndi akale, mawonekedwe amakampani sangalephereke.
1, Pali chaka chabwino pazinthu za silicon
Pansi pa kukwera kwamitengo mu 2021, maulalo anayi akuluakulu opanga ma photovoltaic adzakhala osagwirizana.
Kuyambira Januwale mpaka Seputembala, mitengo ya zida za silicon, zowotcha za silicon, ma cell a solar, ndi ma module zidakwera ndi 165%, 62.6%, 20%, ndi 10.8%, motsatana.Kukwera kwamitengo kumachitika chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa zida za silicon komanso kusowa kwamitengo.Makampani opanga ma silicon owotchera kwambiri adapezanso zopindulitsa mu theka loyamba la chaka.Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, phindu linachepa chifukwa cha kutulutsidwa kwa mphamvu zatsopano zopangira komanso kutopa kwa zinthu zotsika mtengo;kuthekera kodutsa ndalama pa batri ndi gawo limatha Zochepa kwambiri, ndipo phindu limawonongeka kwambiri.
Ndi kutsegulidwa kwa mpikisano watsopano wa mphamvu, kugawa phindu kumbali yopangira zinthu kudzasintha mu 2022: Zida za silicon zikupitiriza kupanga phindu, mpikisano wa silicon wafer ndi woopsa, ndipo phindu la batri ndi module likuyembekezeredwa kubwezeretsedwa.
Chaka chamawa, kuchuluka kwazinthu zonse ndi kufunikira kwa zida za silicon zidzakhalabe zolimba, ndipo mtengo wamitengo udzatsika, koma ulalowu ukhalabe ndi phindu lalikulu.Mu 2021, kuchuluka kwa matani pafupifupi 580,000 a zida za silicon kumafanana ndi kufunikira kwa kukhazikitsa ma terminal;komabe, poyerekeza ndi mapeto a silicon wafer omwe amatha kupanga oposa 300 GW, ndi ochepa, zomwe zimachititsa kuti pakhale zochitika zothamanga, kusungira, ndi kuyendetsa mitengo pamsika.
Ngakhale kuti phindu lalikulu la zida za silicon mu 2021 zadzetsa kukula, chifukwa cha zotchinga zazikulu zolowera komanso kukulitsa kwanthawi yayitali, kusiyana kwa kupanga ndi zowotcha za silicon chaka chamawa kudzawonekerabe.
Kumapeto kwa 2022, zoweta polysilicon mphamvu kupanga adzakhala 850,000 matani / chaka.Poganizira za mphamvu yopangira kunja, imatha kukwaniritsa zofunikira za 230GW.Kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2022, makampani a Top5 okhawo opangira ma silicon adzawonjezera pafupifupi 100GW ya mphamvu zatsopano, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zowotcha za silicon kudzakhala pafupi ndi 500GW.
Poganizira zinthu zosatsimikizika monga kuthamanga kwa kutulutsa mphamvu, zisonyezo zowongolera mphamvu zapawiri, ndi kukonzanso, mphamvu zatsopano zopangira silicon zidzakhala zochepa mu theka loyamba la 2022, zokhazikitsidwa ndi kufunikira kokhazikika kunsi kwa mtsinje, komanso kupezeka ndi kufunikira kokwanira.Kusamvana kopereka mu theka lachiwiri la chaka kudzachepetsedwa bwino.
Pankhani yamitengo yazinthu za silicon, theka loyamba la 2022 lidzatsika pang'onopang'ono, ndipo kutsika kumatha kuchulukira mu theka lachiwiri la chaka.Mtengo wapachaka ukhoza kukhala 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton.
Ngakhale mtengowu watsika kuchokera ku 2021, udakali wokwera kwambiri m'mbiri, ndipo kuchuluka kwa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu komanso kupindula kwa opanga otsogola kupitilirabe kukhala okwera.
Molimbikitsidwa ndi mitengo, pafupifupi zida zonse zotsogola zapakhomo za silicon zataya kale mapulani okulitsa kupanga kwawo.Nthawi zambiri, kuzungulira kwa projekiti ya silicon ndi pafupifupi miyezi 18, kutulutsa kwamphamvu kwapang'onopang'ono, kusinthasintha kwa mphamvu zopangira kumakhalanso kochepa, komanso ndalama zoyambira ndi zotsekera ndizokwera.Choyimiracho chikayamba kusintha, ulalo wazinthu za silicon umakhala wopanda pake.
Kupereka kwakanthawi kochepa kwa zida za silicon kukupitilizabe kukhala kolimba, ndipo mphamvu zopanga zipitilira kutulutsidwa zaka 2-3 zikubwerazi, ndipo kupezeka kumatha kupitilira kufunikira kwakanthawi komanso kwakanthawi.
Pakalipano, mphamvu zopangira zomwe zalengezedwa ndi makampani a silicon zapitirira matani 3 miliyoni, zomwe zingathe kukwaniritsa zofunikira za 1,200GW.Poganizira za kuchuluka komwe kukumangidwa, masiku abwino amakampani a silicon akuyenera kukhala 2022 okha.
2, Nthawi yopangira ma silicon ophikira kwambiri yatha
Mu 2022, gawo la silicon wafer lidzalawa zipatso zowawa zakukula kwambiri ndikupanga ndikukhala gawo lopikisana kwambiri.Phindu ndi kuchuluka kwa mafakitale zidzatsika, ndipo zidzatsanzikana ndi zaka zisanu zopindula kwambiri.
Kulimbikitsidwa ndi zolinga zapawiri-carbon, gawo lopeza phindu lalikulu, lotsika kwambiri la silicon wafer limakondedwa kwambiri ndi likulu.Phindu lochulukirapo limasowa pang'onopang'ono ndikukulitsa mphamvu zopangira, ndipo kukwera kwamitengo kwa zinthu za silicon kumathandizira kukokoloka kwa phindu la silicon wafer.Mu theka lachiwiri la 2022, ndikutulutsidwa kwa zida zatsopano za silicon, nkhondo yamtengo wapatali ikuyembekezeka kuchitika kumapeto kwa silicon.Pofika nthawiyo, phindu lidzakhala litafinyidwa kwambiri, ndipo zina mwa mzere wachiwiri ndi wachitatu zimatha kuchoka pamsika.
Ndi kuyimbanso kwamitengo yam'mwamba ya silicon ndi mitengo yopyapyala, komanso kuthandizira kwamphamvu yakutsika kwamphamvu yakuyika mphamvu, phindu la ma cell a solar ndi zida zake mu 2022 zidzakonzedwa, ndipo sipadzakhala chifukwa chovutikira.
3, Kupanga kwa Photovoltaic kudzapanga malo atsopano opikisana
Malinga ndi zomwe tafotokozazi, gawo lopweteka kwambiri pamakampani opanga ma photovoltaic mu 2022 ndizowonjezera kwambiri zowotcha za silicon, zomwe mwapadera opanga zowotcha za silicon ndizomwe zimakhala zambiri;okondwa kwambiri akadali makampani a silicon, ndipo atsogoleri adzapeza phindu lalikulu.
Pakalipano, mphamvu zothandizira ndalama zamakampani a photovoltaic zakhala zikuwonjezeka kwambiri, koma kupita patsogolo kwachangu kwaukadaulo kwapangitsa kuti chuma chiwonjezeke.Munkhaniyi, kuphatikiza koyima ndi lupanga lakuthwa konsekonse, makamaka pamalumikizidwe awiri omwe mabatire ndi zida za silicon zimayikidwa ndalama mopitilira muyeso.Kugwirizana ndi njira yabwino.
Ndi kukonzanso kwa phindu lamakampani komanso kuchuluka kwa osewera atsopano, malo ampikisano amakampani a photovoltaic mu 2022 adzakhalanso ndi zosintha zazikulu.
Polimbikitsidwa ndi zolinga zapawiri-carbon, olowa nawo atsopano akuika ndalama pakupanga photovoltaic, zomwe zimabweretsa zovuta zazikulu kwa makampani amtundu wa photovoltaic ndipo zingayambitse kusintha kwakukulu kwa mafakitale.
Aka ndi nthawi yoyamba m'mbiri kuti ndalama zodutsa malire zalowa mu kupanga photovoltaic pamlingo waukulu chonchi.Otsatira atsopano nthawi zonse amakhala ndi mwayi woyambira mochedwa, ndipo osewera akale opanda mpikisano wokhazikika amatha kuthetsedwa mosavuta ndi obwera kumene omwe ali ndi chuma cholemera.
4, malo ogawa magetsi salinso gawo lothandizira
Malo opangira magetsi ndi ulalo wakumunsi kwa photovoltaics.Mu 2022, mawonekedwe amagetsi omwe adayikidwapo awonetsanso zatsopano.
Zomera zamagetsi za Photovoltaic zitha kugawidwa pafupifupi mitundu iwiri: yapakati komanso yogawidwa.Zotsirizirazi zimagawidwa m'mafakitale ndi malonda ndi ntchito zapakhomo.Kupindula ndi kukondoweza kwa ndondomekoyi ndi ndondomeko yopereka ndalama zokwana masenti 3 pa kilowati pa ola lamagetsi, mphamvu yoyika wogwiritsa ntchito yakwera kwambiri;pomwe kuyika kwapakati kwachepa chifukwa cha kukwera kwamitengo, mwayi wogawika woyika mu 2021 udzakwera kwambiri, ndipo kuchuluka kwa kuchuluka komwe kwayikidwa kudzawonjezekanso.Super centralized kwa nthawi yoyamba m'mbiri.
Kuyambira Januware mpaka Okutobala 2021, mphamvu zomwe zidagawidwa zinali 19GW, zomwe zimawerengera pafupifupi 65% ya mphamvu zonse zomwe zidayikidwa nthawi yomweyo, zomwe kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwapakhomo kudakwera ndi 106% pachaka mpaka 13.6GW, komwe kunali gwero lalikulu la mphamvu yatsopano yoyika.
Kwa nthawi yayitali, msika wa photovoltaic wogawidwa wapangidwa makamaka ndi makampani apadera chifukwa cha kugawanika kwake ndi kukula kwake kochepa.Kuthekera koyika kwa photovoltaic yogawidwa mdziko muno kumapitilira 500GW.Komabe, chifukwa chosamvetsetsa bwino malamulo a maboma ndi mabizinesi ena komanso kusakonzekera bwino, chipwirikiti chimachitika nthawi zambiri pantchito zenizeni.Malinga ndi ziwerengero zochokera ku China Photovoltaic Industry Association, kukula kwa ntchito zazikuluzikulu zoyambira kupitilira 60GW zalengezedwa ku China, ndipo kuchuluka kwa magetsi opangira magetsi m'zigawo za 19 (zigawo ndi mizinda) ndi pafupifupi 89.28 GW.
Kutengera izi, kukulitsa ziyembekezo zotsika za mtengo wamakampaniwo, bungwe la China Photovoltaic Viwanda Association limalosera kuti mphamvu ya photovoltaic yomwe yangoyikidwa kumene mu 2022 idzakhala yoposa 75GW.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jan-06-2022